2010 predictions

It's now a tradition of this blog to make some sort of predictions for the coming year, and despite our absence and the relative quietness of the past 6 months, we feel the need to carry on with this convention.


Firstly, as usual, lets look at how successful we were last year:

Right

More Public Inquiry delays. It was delay, delay, delay - even the act of shutting it down was protracted. So we feel that was right, although it was hard to get this bit wrong.

The economic situation worsening. Again, another no-brainer. But this had the maximum effect of making 4NW drop the Longdendale Bypass from their spending plans early in the year.

Wrong 

Everything else! Unfortunately, Roy Oldham has not stood down - although a little bird tells us that he may stand down as the leader of TMBC in 2010 to concentrate on trying to bring about Bypass 2.0. And of course, Geoff Hoon could not act on the bypass because he resigned as Secretary of State in June last year.

Predictions for the coming year:

Whoever is the next High Peak MP will back the bypass. Yes, thanks in no small part to the sterling work done on his expense claims over at the Tom Levitt's Expenses blog, Tom Levitt has decided to call it a day before he lost out to the Tories anyway - we don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that Levitt may be made a peer, but expect it's more likely he will land some corporate post, perhaps connected with a developer, since he has done his best to concrete-ise the High Peak. Will a new face as the Labour candidate mean they retain the High Peak seat? Whatever happens, we expect the winner to back the bypass (we've already blogged about the Tory candidate Andrew Bingham). We'd expect James Purnell to retain his seat, but with a much reduced majority, and we know that the prospective Tory PPC is pro-bypass anyway.

Little progress with Bypass 2.0. Despite all the hullabaloo about this project since the demise of the Highways Agency project, we feel that the emperor has no clothes. TMBC have promised public consultation next year, so expect lots of 'artists impression'-style images of a quiet traffic-free Mottram, but no images of the hell this will cause elsewhere. We plan to do an extensive article about Bypass 2.0 in the New Year.

And that's your lot.

Predictions for 2009

You may remember last year we made some predictions for the coming year, and we're going to try to do similar for 2009. Firstly, we'll look at how accurate our predictions were for the previous year.

Right

That the Public Inquiry wouldn't finish in 2008. Indeed, it hasn't even sat again since December 2007.

Trevor Mooney would find more uses for his car park. We haven't actually blogged about it for some time, partly because it becomes so tedious, but since we last wrote we've had the following suggestions: grazing land for horses (March 2008), an Alzheimer Unit (May 2008), a Crematorium (May 2008), Allotments (July 2008) and finally a Circus (December 2008).

Wrong

There was no General Election meaning we've endured Tom Levitt for at least a little bit longer. Because Gordon Brown's fortunes seem to have actually improved since the economic crisis came about, we're loath to write off Levitt's chances. But then again his majority is only 735 votes, and much will depend upon whether Gordon Brown decides to call an election soon, before the full weight of the recession-becoming-depression hits home.

That the planning permission for the Glossop Spur would be renewed. It now seems clear that this is wedded to the awaited traffic figures from the 'updated' Highways Agency data, hence the no-show.

This time last year, we found it hard to predict what would happen with the Congestion Charge - if we'd thought about the scale of the economic Crisis, we should have realised the incredibly bad timing and stupidity of AGMA in plumping for a referendum about increased taxation in the midst of an economic downturn.

"Widening tides of resistance to the closure of Woodhead". Hmmn, well, not quite. The campaign to prevent closure started 2008 really well, with a couple of effective demonstrations. Since then, if we're honest it has limped along. And although work at the Tunnel seems to have ground to a halt, this seems to be more to do with the economic crisis affecting National Grid than anything else.

Predictions for the coming year:

More Public Inquiry delays - almost inevitable. Will the Highways Agency act as they usually do and snub John Watson's timetable? If they do cooperate, it will be something new. But if they don't, will John Watson resign? And will the statutory objectors then pull out? We'd be surprised if the Inquiry was concluded by the end of 2009 anyway, since the information we already have suggests there's little chance of it resuming until the second half of 2009. 

Roy Oldham stands down - it's a possibility. There were rumours he would resign at the time of his Area Address in November, but we feel he was being briefed against by rivals. Since then, the Chief Executive has resigned, so you can probably have a reasonable guess who was amongst the rivals. But his health is an issue, and maybe his time will be up in 2009? If it is, will Tameside MBC drop their plans for a Glossop Spur? The possibilities could be endless once the Ancien Régime has gone. Until then, remember the Ides of March...

Geoff Hoon/Who? acts on the bypass - this colossal prick has distinguished himself before by making disastrous decisions (i.e. the Iraq War), so what's to say he won't interfere with the progress of the road? As our blog about the Hoongate meeting noted, he has suggested de-trunking the A57 and A628 as a solution and seems prepared to step in to move things forward. If this is the case, we'd like to predict such an escalation should be met with a suitable response. 

The economic situation will worsen (a no-brainer really) - with implications for the bypass, transport policy and any moves to act to mitigate climate change. This is almost a given, but Geoff Who? already seems to have handed the local politicians a way out with regards to escalating costs - unless that is, it's a trap given the lack of money in the regions to cover existing commitments. On the other hand, Labour may act to bring forward public works projects like Barack Obama has pledged to do in the USA - it already brought forward £700 million for roadschemes in the pre-budget report. Although perhaps an economic collapse will wipe the slate clean - even fine words will be junked if things get bad enough. And to be honest, there will then be fundamental issues which need to be tackled that should sideline the bypass issue for any serious activists. 

That's what we think - what do you think? Leave your thoughts as comments. It'll be interesting to see what has come to pass this time next year.

Predictions for 2008

Crystal Balls are hard to come by, but I'm going to try to make some predictions about possible events and outcomes regarding the Bypass and other environmental issues in Glossopdale and Longdendale over the next 12 months...

Public Inquiry

We already know that this has been delayed indefinitely, with the Highways Agency (HA) only giving a vague commitment to return by Easter to tell Inspector John Watson how long they are going to take to finish their work.

We think it's unlikely to finish this year, given that it all effectively has to start from scratch. But will anyone boycott it? Last year saw a increasingly worrying tendency for objectors to play ball with the farce that it has become and one has to wonder how long it will be before someone (anyone!) stands up and refuses to co-operate with a process that has little credibility. Otherwise, it could be a case of being tainted by association with this whole mess.

We may also find out the reason why the HA have been delayed. But it may not come from them, but from elsewhere. We have our own info, which we will divulge very soon...

'Development'

The end of 2007 has already seen defeats and victories over the ongoing issue of development in the area. In 2008, we will see new assaults on the environment in Longdendale and Glossopdale, 2 of which will be the subject of future blogs over the next few days. One can be assured that more defeats will only mean more applications for development.

And we'd like to think that these plans are increasingly resisted by residents, using a variety of (as yet unadopted) methods. But it's not clear that that will now happen.

From the perspective of High Peak Borough Council (HPBC), the increasing traffic assured through further development is grist to their mill in arguing more strongly for the Glossop Spur, whose planning permission has to be renewed in December 2008. The latter will be another cause for a showdown, the result of which will be highly significant.

Trevor Mooney

We can confidently predict that he will appear several times in the local papers, pointing out how his plans to make an honest living have been thwarted by HPBC.

Tom Levitt

Political Pundits think it's unlikely there'll be a General Election this year, but if there is, we're sure Tom Levitt will be out on his ear. But does anyone think it'll be anything other than 'business as usual' for his successor? We doubt it...

Congestion Charge

3 Greater Manchester local authorities are now opposed to AGMA's plans for a Manchester Congestion Charge. It will only take one other to change their mind for the plan to fail, and we wouldn't like to call the result of this one. A victory for AGMA will mean that (in our view) naive environmentalists will think this has something to do with preventing climate change whereas defeat should mean that serious campaigners argue for ultra-cheap, reliable and extensive public transport initiatives without the utterly pathetic (and locally financially crippling) strings attached to AGMA's bid.

However, what has underpinned this whole issue from a Green/Left perspective is complete ignorance of the central importance of the motor industry has to capitalism. A lack of rigorous analysis and advocacy of reformist politics on certain sections of the Green/Left axis is hampering progress.

Government Transport Policy

Following the publication of their discussion paper about future transport policy, the DfT has committed itself to start a consultation exercise by July 2008, and to publish a white paper by December. We don't believe in Damascene conversions, and it's certain that current transport policy and projects will meet resistance by effective activists. There will be another Climate Camp - which may focus on road projects - and (much needed) widespread Direct Action will take place.

Woodhead

National Grid will attempt to commence their vandalism of the Woodhead Tunnel - their schedule tells us this is days away. We predict they will meet a widening tide of resistance, and on different levels.

This time next year, it will be interesting to see what has come to pass from all of the above.